Millennium Global is pleased to share the latest Macro and Currency Outlook Highlights Q2 2019 document, which examines several themes including:
- Global growth is slipping, leading to a potential re-pricing of interest rate markets as they look for elevated odds of a recession.
- Despite the dovish shift from the Fed, we only see small downside risks to the US dollar, as higher inflation expectations are still seen as positive for growth.
- The absence of a rebound in hard data will further impact rate hike expectations for 2020-21 in the Euro area.
- Norwegian krone is likely to see benefit from another potential rate hike in Q2 2019.
- In EM, country-specific opportunities are favoured and we look for outperformance of the Mexican peso, Russian ruble and South African rand and downward pressures on Asian currencies such as the Singapore dollar.
This document contains the views and opinions of our Global Economic Research and Strategy Team (Claire Dissaux and Meena Bassily) as of 15 April and does not necessarily represent the views and opinions of Millennium Global or any of its Portfolio Managers.