Millennium Global is pleased to share Millennium Global’s Q1 2018 Macro and Currency Outlook Highlights document, which examines several themes including:
- A bearish view on the broad USD index based on continued synchronised global growth and the lack of a catalyst to re-price the Fed’s interest rate path.
- Potential further upside for the EUR vs. USD, amid a likely self-sustained recovery, strong balance of payments support and a cheap valuation.
- A bearish view on GBP based on the potential for downside risks arising from further Brexit complications.
- Potential for USD weakness to extend to USD/JPY amid JPY’s massive undervaluation on a trade-weighted basis, improved balance of payments position and market speculation about adjustments to the yield curve control policy.
- Expectation of SEK and NOK to be supported by the outlook for monetary policy normalisation in H2 2018.
- Prospective Emerging Market growth differential vs. Developed Markets to increase in 2018, favouring reformers such ZAR and MXN.
- Attractiveness of TRY due to its cheap valuation and potential for inflation rolling over.
The document contains the views and opinions of our Global Economic Research and Strategy Team and does not necessarily represent the views and opinions of Millennium Global or any of its Portfolio Managers.