Millennium Global is pleased to share its latest Q4 2021 Currency and Macro Quarterly Outlook  document:

A less incomplete, less uneven but still fragile global recovery:

  • Developed markets economies are closer to pre-crisis GDP and labour markets have recovered further, even if with bumps on the road
  • Vaccination progress has accelerated in part of EM and Japan and most economies have shifted away from containment strategy (with the notable exception of China)
  • But recurring bouts of weakness in final demand and persistent supply constraints carry the risk of a more durable hit to business sentiment and consumer confidence
  • A bounce back in global growth from a soft patch in Q3 2021 and the widespread willingness of central banks to normalise balance sheet policies should act as a drag on the USD
  • Looking for selective support for emerging market currencies (RUB, MXN) and commodity currencies (CAD, AUD in particular) as policy signals from Chinese authorities point to easing which should put a floor under investment and growth in China
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