Millennium Global is pleased to share the latest Macro and Currency Outlook Highlights Q1 2019 document, which examines several themes including:
- World growth to slow but we believe financial markets are overpricing the risk of recession.
- However, there are significant lingering risks including a disorderly Brexit, an Italian sovereign crisis and a further escalation in trade wars.
- US dollar tailwinds are expected to fade due to late cycle effects, widening twin deficits and reduced monetary policy differentiation.
- The absence of a significant economic rebound and a potential dovish shift in ECB guidance will limit Euro gains versus the dollar.
- The cheap valuation of the Japanese yen can support its appreciation amid a global growth slowdown and rise in financial market volatility.
- In EM, country-specific opportunities are favoured and we look for outperformance of the Mexican peso and Russian ruble and downward pressures on Asian currencies such as the Korean won and Singapore dollar.
This document contains the views and opinions of our Global Economic Research and Strategy Team (Claire Dissaux and Meena Bassily) as of 17 January and does not necessarily represent the views and opinions of Millennium Global or any of its Portfolio Managers.