Q2 2023 Global Currency and Macroeconomic Outlook

Millennium Global is pleased to share its latest quarterly Currency and Macroeconomic Outlook.

This outlook shares our economics and strategy teams’ views on the macro themes that will matter most in the coming quarter and how these are expected to impact global currencies.

Economic Views:

• Our central case is that the Federal Reserve has the ability to ring fence financial stability concerns
• Higher funding costs for small and regional banks are likely to tighten US financial conditions via the credit channel, where lending standards were already being tightened due to monetary policy

FX Views:

• Credit tightening in the US accelerates the Fed tightening cycle by hurting growth and reminding the Fed there are lags to monetary policy
• While we disagree with near term cuts from the Fed priced by markets, our view that inflation and growth should moderate continues to pose downside risks to US 2-year yields

 

This piece of content  contains the views and opinions of our Global Economic Research and Strategy Team as of 1st April 2023 and does not necessarily represent the views and opinions of Millennium Global or any of its Portfolio Managers.

This information is intended for Professional Clients only, not retail clients. This information does not constitute an offer to buy or a solicitation of an offer to sell and does not constitute an offer or solicitation in any jurisdiction in which such a solicitation is unlawful or to any person to whom it is unlawful.

For further information please see Important Disclaimers here.