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Macro Matters - Q2 2023 Macro Outlook

Podcast by Millennium Global with Piya Sachdeva, Sandra Rhouma & Eve Danbury


In this episode of the Macro Matters podcast by Millennium Global, we share our Q2 2023 Global Currency & Macroeconomic Outlook. Our Lead Economist, Piya Sachdeva, Economist & Strategist, Sandra Rhouma and Junior Portfolio Manager, Eve Danbury discuss the macro themes that will matter most in the coming quarter and how these are expected to impact global currencies.

Discussion points:

01:54: How do you think the next quarter plays out for the US and what do you think about the Fed's reaction function in terms of going forward, given the likely credit tightening that is now taking place post this initial banking liquidity crisis?

06:22: Do you foresee any further spillovers into the European banking sector from what's happened in the US? And then from that, what's what's your base case for the ECB from here, given core inflation at the moment is still proving to remain sticky in the near term?

10:47: But from a macro standpoint, Piya, what's your view on the dollar and to the second quarter of this year?

13:14: How are you thinking about the euro here over the next quarter?

15:38: So how are you thinking about the yen from here?

17:41: How are you thinking about the UK and starting from here? 

19:47: What are your thoughts on the Swiss franc from here?

21:53: Sandra, what are your thoughts on Australia and the RBA and consequently the Aussie dollar from here?

23:31: How are you thinking about commodities and oil prices broadly and how does that feed into your more neutral view on the Canadian dollar?

25:01: Is there anything else we should be thinking about with specific focus on Brazil?

27:39: Do you think there's limited upside for the currency (CNH) from the reopening given the current account dynamics and also, the lack of spillover that we've seen in regional exports? What are your thoughts here?

IMPORTANT DISCLAIMERS: This piece of content contains the views and opinions of our Global Economic Research and Strategy Team as of 6th April 2023 and does not necessarily represent the views and opinions of Millennium Global or any of its Portfolio Managers. This information is intended for Professional Clients only, not retail clients. This information does not constitute an offer to buy or a solicitation of an offer to sell and does not constitute an offer or solicitation in any jurisdiction in which such a solicitation is unlawful or to any person to whom it is unlawful. Past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future results. Forecasts are not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. For further information please see Important Disclaimers on https://investments.millenniumglobal.com/regulatory-disclaimers